When we last checked in on the 2012 Super Bowl odds, we were a week deep in the football season and the world was overreacting, as the world is wont to do after a week of football. Week 2 provides a touch more clarity for the teams in the NFL, but there’s very much a market correction. It’s also not surprising to see teams that win rise and teams that lose fall. That should be a common theme throughout the year.
This week we’re going to start including our experts’ Super Bowl picks below, as well as a table with all the NFL Super Bowl odds, courtesy of Bovada.lv. To the analysis mobile:
As noted in the headline, the 49ers climbed to the top of the heap, with the Texans right behind them. This shouldn’t be a huge surprise; San Francisco (5/1) and Houston (6/1) have looked like the most dominant, complete teams in the NFL two weeks in. Houston, in my mind, is more balanced, but Jim Harbaugh’s crew whipped up on a pair of NFC playoff teams, and not the Jaguars and Dolphins. It would be nuts if these two teams ended up playing in New Orleans, if only because the NFL’s turned into a pass-happy league.
The biggest fallers among the favorites are the Bears, Broncos, Cowboys and Saints. The first three teams listed looked great in Week 1 and laid some size of an egg in Week 2, with Dallas (25/1) dropping an ostrich bomb in Seattle. Vegas clearly has concerns about Chicago (18/1) and their offense, Peyton Manning holding up in Denver (18/1) and very big issues with the way New Orleans (35/1) plays defense.
If the Giants (22/1, at Carolina on Thursday), Steelers (22/1, at Raiders) and Chargers (20/1, vs. Falcons) win on Sunday, good luck getting them at less than 20/1 odds. Should you be enamored of those teams, now is the time to bet. Pittsburgh, playing hapless Oakland, is the best bet to leap a bit if they look strong on the road.
One of the more shocking lines to me is the Cardinals at 60/1. They jumped up significantly and they do have serious problems (quarterback, running back, offensive line), but they’re 2-0 and just waltzed into Foxborough and beat the Patriots. And Bovada’s actually the priciest of wagers — Sportsbook.ag has Arizona at 70/1, and the folks @WagerMinds noted to me on Twitter that you can get them offshore for 85/1. Yes, they have issues. Yes, they’re in a tough division. No, I don’t think Larry Fitzgerald is right when he says they can win a Super Bowl. But there are only six undefeated teams left and that’s a good-value bet.
It was interesting to see the last week’s trendy Redskins (50/1) drop like a rock after a close loss to the Rams (200/1, unchanged). It likely has more to do with losing Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker than actually losing though.
A couple more notable movers, real quick, and then onto the picks. The Panthers and Seahawks both jumped up to 50/1 odds, which is nice value for teams with a lot of talent but some question marks. Meanwhile, the Chiefs and Raiders both fell to 150/1. That’s not just because the Chargers and Broncos are going to make this a two-horse race (though that helps and is hard to overcome). It’s also because these two teams looked just horrible through the first fortnight of the season.
Week 2 Expert Super Bowl Picks
Pete Prisco: Texans vs. Packers– Even though Green Bay lost to the 49ers, I think the defensive improvement against Chicago makes them the favorite still. What can’t the Texans do? They can run it. Throw it. And play great defense.
Mike Freeman: Ravens vs. Packers — The Ravens finally have an offense. Or at least an offense that allows Joe Flacco more freedom something I’ve wanted the Ravens organization to do for some time. The offense has the potential to produce some serious firepower to go along with an already dominant defense.
Will Brinson: Texans vs. Falcons — Why? Because I picked it before the season and thus far, both teams have looked quite good. The NFC will be tough to navigate, but as long Atlanta doesn’t get crushed with big-time injuries like Brent Grimes all season, they can pull it off. Houston’s kicked the mess out of two inferior opponents, but that doesn’t make them any less well-rounded or talented.
Josh Katzowitz: Texans vs. Packers — While 2-0 might not sound like much, there areonly two teams in the AFC that have accomplished it — Houston and the Chargers. So far, the Texans defense, running game and quarterbacking have come together to make this the best team in the conference. Hey, Green Bay lost in Week 1. It happens. But that doesn’t mean the Packers won’t win the NFC North and then outlast San Francisco in their rematch from Week 1to make their second Super Bowl in three years. ThatGreen Bayoffense is just too good.
Team
Week 2 Odds
Week 3 Odds
Trend
Team
Week 2 Odds
Week 3 Odds
Trend
49ers
15/2
5/1
Panthers
66/1
50/1
Texans
7/1
6/1
Seahawks
60/1
50/1
Patriots
5/1
13/2
Redskins
35/1
50/1
Packers
8/1
7/1
Cardinals
80/1
60/1
Eagles
16/1
12/1
Bengals
75/1
66/1
Falcons
16/1
14/1
Bills
100/1
75/1
Ravens
12/1
14/1
Colts
150/1
100/1
Bears
12/1
18/1
Buccaneers
60/1
100/1
Broncos
12/1
18/1
Chiefs
75/1
150/1
Chargers
25/1
20/1
Dolphins
200/1
150/1
Giants
25/1
22/1
Raiders
100/1
150/1
Steelers
25/1
22/1
Vikings
150/1
200/1
Cowboys
18/1
25/1
Rams
200/1
200/1
N/A
Saints
22/1
35/1
Titans
125/1
200/1
Lions
30/1
40/1
Jaguars
250/1
300/1
Jets
33/1
40/1
Browns
200/1
400/1
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