The Kevin Buckles Report: Saints vs. Niners Playoff Edition
Keys to the Game:
ESTABLISH AN EARLY LEAD
As I stated in my Playoff Preview, the San Francisco 49ers may just be the most fundamentally sound team in the league. They are built like an old-school NFL team that is a run-first offense, committing very few turnovers and committed to playing very stout defense on the other end. However, they are NOT built like a team that can play “catch-up” such as Detroit Lions team that kept Saints fans on the edge of their seats on Wild Card weekend. If the Niners were to fall down 10-0, or 14-3, for example, they would almost have to completely abandon their offensive game plan, in an effort to keep pace with the points the Saints’ explosive offense put up. It would immediately take Alex Smith out of his comfort zone and could make him force more passes down the field, which could end up being potential turnovers for the Saints defense. But to accomplish this, it is vital that Drew Brees have the offense in sync early and stress not turning the ball over on promising drives as they did (twice) vs. the Lions in the first half.
PRESSURE ALEX SMITH
Although Alex Smith has had somewhat of a resurging season, it hasn’t all been “peaches and cream.” Smith has been sacked an eye-popping 44 times this season, leading the league. The Niners might try to come out and pass the ball early to get the Saints defense off balance so that should open up an early chance for Smith to get pressured. If New Orleans’ blitz-happy defense can hurry Smith early, he can start becoming jittery in the pocket and start throwing errant passes which will play right into the Saints hands (literally).
CONTAIN VERNON DAVIS
The Achilles-heel on the Saints defense this year has been Roman Harper covering tight ends over the middle of the field. A tight end has caught a touchdown pass in nine of the Saints seventeen games this season, a pretty staggering stat. Vernon Davis was the 49ers’ second leading receiver in receptions and yards, and led the team in touchdown passes this season. Davis is definitely a security blanket for Alex Smith, and the focus needs to be on him when trying to defend the pass, especially on play-action plays. Helping Harper blanket Davis in coverage could mean that Smith would be forced to move the ball more vertical with Malcolm Jenkins roaming deep ready to make a play on long passes.
Key Matchup:
JIMMY GRAHAM/DARREN SPROLES VS PATRICK WILLIS & NAVARRO BOWMAN
There is no doubt that the emergence of Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles have propelled the New Orleans Saints offense to another level this season. In only his second season, Graham just finished up having one of the most prolific seasons for a tight end in NFL History while Sproles broke the record for most all-purpose yards in a season that stood for ten years. And although no team has been able to really contain the duo, the 49ers may have the personnel to get it done. Perennial All-Pro middle linebacker Patrick Willis is widely considered the best in the league at his position in all facets of the game. Navarro Bowman is a budding star playing alongside Willis and proved that he is a legit player when he stepped in admirably for Patrick when he was out for about a month with a hamstring injury. They are extremely athletic, agile, strong at the point of attack, and have great closing speed; all ingredients of being able to keep Sproles and Graham under wraps. That could be a huge bonus for the Niners and somewhat of a setback for the Saints offense seeing that those are Brees’ go-to-guys. The side that dominates this matchup for the majority of the day will have an excellent chance on winning the game.
Player to Watch For:
CHRIS IVORY
Marshawn Lynch, who is the main cog on a one-dimensional running offense in Seattle handled the 49ers run defense in Week 16 with his bruising running style. He became the first guy to rush for over 100 yards as well as being the first guy to rush for a touchdown vs. them. The reason I bring up Lynch is because him and Saints running back Chris Ivory have very similar styles of running. They are rarely, if ever, brought down off of first contact, and they always seem to fall forward after being tackled. By no means am I saying that Ivory is on the same level as Lynch, but if he can bring his normal level of toughness and tenacity to the Saints offense like he’s known for, it can really pay dividends for the team. It would loosen up the Niners defense for sure as well as provide great balance for the Saints offense, preventing them from becoming predictable and one-dimensional. If Ivory can consistently gain tough yardage on the ground during the game to keep the 49ers defense honest, it will be another big game for the Saints, and they’ll be most likely on their way to their third NFC Championship game in six years.
Prediction:
Something tells me the Saints wont have as much trouble scoring as people would think early in the ball game, and I think they will take control early. The 49ers simply don’t have enough firepower to keep up with the scoring of New Orleans and will find themselves scrapping near the end of the game for points. Alex Smith has been the mot inefficient quarterback in the league this season in the redzone, leading to kicker David Akers setting the NFL for most field goals made in a season through only 14 games. Field goals just won’t win it vs. the Saints on any football field, indoor or outdoor. With that being said, I predict the Saints will defeat the San Francisco 49ers in Candlestick Park by a score of 34-26.
100%
Titans defensive coordinator Jerry Gray wants to coach the most intimidating defense in the league, and he doesn’t care if that causes his players to hear from the league office.
With the Saints likely to throw plenty of passes over the middle to their lanky tight end Jimmy Graham on Sunday, Gray is telling his linebackers and safeties they should have a big target over the middle.
