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Drew Brees

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Fox Sports' Jay Glazer: Steve Spagnuolo Will Become Saints Defensive Coordinator

According to a report confirmed by NFL Network insider Jason LaCanfora, FoxSports.com's Jay Glazer is reporting that former Giants defensive coordinator and Rams head coach Steve Spagnuolo has agreed to take over for the departing Gregg Williams in New Orleans.  Details of the contract have not yet been finalized.

Spagnuolo, the architect of the Giants' fire-zone blitz that led New York to victory in Super Bowl XLII, will head up a defensive unit ranked third-worst against the pass and 24th against the run.

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Drew Brees: Saints Likely to Use Franchise Tag on Superstar QB

Drew Brees may be destined for the Pro Football Hall of Fame, but there's no reason for the New Orleans Saints to sign a 33-year-old quarterback to a long-term deal if they don't have to.

That appears to be what the Saints are thinking.

According to Jeff Duncan of the Times-Picayune, the Saints will likely use their franchise tag on Brees this offseason, who is set to be a free agent.

We've seen teams do this before. The New England Patriots did it with guard Logan Mankins before this season and the Philadelphia Eagles did it with enigmatic receiver DeSean Jackson. However, such a deal does have a way of creating tension, as it did for Mankins and the Patriots (a player signed to a franchise tag cannot pursue a long-term deal).

Nonetheless, Brees has never been one to complain. I don't see this affecting him too much. Obviously, he'd like a long-term deal, but he's always been a team player and he's developed an unmistakable chemistry in New Orleans over the years, with his receiving corps and with head coach Sean Payton.

This campaign, Brees set the NFL record for passing yards in a season, surpassing Dan Marino. He also threw 46 touchdowns to 14 interceptions and completed 71.2 percent of his passes in the regular season, another NFL record.

Brees, who already has a Super Bowl ring, led the Saints to the Divisional Round of the playoffs this season. They were ousted by the San Francisco 49ers, but Brees still passed for 462 yards and four touchdowns against arguably the best defense in the NFL. That was after he passed for 466 yards and three touchdowns against the Detroit Lions in the Wild Card Round.

In using the franchise tag on Brees, the Saints made the right decision, allowing them to eye how Brees holds up for another season in the NFL while locking him up for another run at the Super Bowl.

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Break It Down: How Vernon Davis was Clutch against Saints Defense (SI.com)

In Break It Down, I will go back and analyze the Xs and Os of a play or performance from the NFL week that stood out above the rest.   Way back in Week 6 of this NFL season, the Saints’ defense found itself in the “Break It Down” spotlight after allowing 303 yards passing and two touchdowns to Tampa Bay’s Josh Freeman. In that game, the Bucs used the Saints’ unique defensive approach against them, as Freeman found holes in the secondary and Earnest Graham took advantage of some running room. Some of the same issues that popped up then — and, really, all season — for New Orleans led to Vernon Davis’ monster afternoon Saturday in the NFL playoffs’ divisional round.   A quick refresher on the Saints’ scheme, which San Francisco torched on Davis’ first touchdown, a 49-yarder that put the 49ers up 7-0. You can get a good look at New Orleans’ setup prior to the play, with safety Roman Harper (yellow box) playing Davis in press coverage at the line, while the Saints’ other safety, Malcolm Jenkins (red box) sags about 20 yards deep. This is not an unusual look for the Saints, who tend to use one of their safeties — usually Harper — almost as an extra linebacker, then drop their second safety way, way back. The approach backfired time and again versus Davis. There was nothing too tricky about the route Davis ran on this play. The 49ers cleared the left side of the field and had their tight end run to space. The Saints’ issues on the play were apparent before QB Alex Smith even let go of the ball — Davis had beaten Harper off the line and Jenkins was still several yards from closing. Jenkins made things worse for New Orleans by whiffing on the tackle and taking out Harper in the process. Davis bounced off that hit attempt and waltzed into the end zone for a touchdown. Let’s fast forward to the fourth quarter, when Davis undressed the Saints’ secondary. Right after New Orleans had taken a 24-23 lead with 4:02 left, the 49ers faced a 2nd-and-10 from their own 33. This time, San Francisco lined Davis up wide left, where he was matched up one-on-one with Jenkins. Jenkins gave Davis a little cushion and backed off about six or seven yards. He still couldn’t stay with the 49ers’ dynamic tight end, who simply ran a “go” route up the sideline. Smith delivered a perfect ball over Davis’ outside shoulder for a 37-yard gain, but Jenkins never had a chance to break it up. A couple talking points here: 1. Davis’ versatility allows the 49ers to use him in a number of different ways within their offensive set, making him that much more of a challenge for opposing defenses. This was a theme throughout the NFL’s divisional round, be it with Davis, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Jimmy Graham and so on. The league is loaded with talented tight ends right now, and teams are getting more and more creative with how they utilize them. 2. San Francisco’s offensive line did not win every battle Saturday — Smith was sacked four times and Frank Gore finished with less than 100 yards rushing — but down the stretch, it turned in a dominating effort. Case in point: The deep ball to Davis. New Orleans actually brought the house on the play, sending eight defenders at Smith. The 49ers picked everyone up for long enough to let Smith set and deliver that outside ball. Less than a minute after Davis’ 37-yard grab, Smith took one to the house to put San Francisco back on top. New Orleans answered again, reclaiming a 32-29 lead with 1:37 remaining. At the 40-second mark, for the second possession in a row, San Francisco found itself in a 2nd-and-10 from its own 33. The 49ers moved Davis back inside for this play, and the Saints countered with Jenkins up tight in man coverage. But the Saints’ issues continued to repeat themselves on the play. Smith had time to survey the field and find Davis, who again managed to get past Jenkins. Similar to Davis’ earlier touchdown catch, the Saints’ scheme came back to bite them on this play. With Jenkins unable to stay with Davis off the line and Harper playing a good 30 yards deep, there’s a huge gap in the middle of the field. Remember, this play started on San Francisco’s 33 … and here’s our first glimpse of Harper, the deep safety, at the New Orleans 40-yard line. That’s 27 yards downfield before Harper comes into the play. Just like Jenkins earlier, he blew the tackle, which allowed Davis to pick up a few extra yards. From the scheme to the execution, this was a total breakdown by the Saints at the worst possible time. And that big catch by Davis put the 49ers in position to go for the win in regulation, when it looked originally like San Francisco might struggle to get into field goal territory. Finally, the game-clinching touchdown grab by Davis. True to form, the 49ers moved Davis around — this time, he’s back to Smith’s left, stacked up with fellow tight end Justin Peele. The Saints changed up their alignment on this play, too, dropping the tight-man defense for a zone. Peele and Davis ran a pretty routine two-man route here — Peele checked up on a little hook pattern at the 10, while Davis ran a deeper slant to the goal line. Saints’ cornerback Patrick Robinson (No. 21, far left) started to fade toward the back corner, then changed his mind when he realized no other receivers were headed that direction. His split-second hesitation, though left Peele momentarily open in the middle, which in turn caused Saints’ linebacker Scott Shanle (No. 58) to cheat up toward Peele. Davis then dropped right in behind Shanle and in front of Harper. Smith delivered an absolute strike, Davis shielded Harper from being able to make a play and the rest, as they say, is history. Vernon Davis is a difficult matchup, no matter the circumstances. Like some of the league’s other elite tight ends, he’s fast enough to run by most defenders but also strong enough to shake off physical coverage. The Saints learned those lessons the hard way Sunday. No matter whether Harper or Jenkins was on the 49ers’ big tight end, the Saints could not come up with any answers on how to stop him. San Francisco, in turn, took full advantage of New Orleans’ unusual defensive scheme, sending Davis to the areas of the field that the Saints often leave open. Davis came through repeatedly — and because of that, the 49ers are headed to the NFC title game.

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2012 NFL Playoffs: It Was Lights Out in San Francisco for the Saints

When the San Francisco mayor earlier this week declared "lights out" for the Saints, I'm not sure how many people took him seriously. Certainly not anyone who considered themselves part of Who Dat Nation. 

Unfortunately for Saints fans, Saturday night the Mayor was correct. The lights to the 2011 Saints' season were blown out, 36-32. 

It started uncharacteristically, with four first-half turnovers. But even those couldn't prevent the Saints from twice taking the lead in the fourth quarter. 

It came with a defense reversing its trend of starting slow and finishing fast. Saturday they started relatively fast and finished miserably. 

The offense was good enough to win most games. But there's no doubt the mayor's wish was bound to come true. There was something in the air Saturday in San Francisco, and it wasn't the lights. 

Instead it was a defense who took the ball away just enough, and an offense that hit big plays seemingly at will late in the game. 

It was a classic, to say the least—one in which Drew Brees shined brightly, but for one night Alex Smith even brighter. You see, those lights that were supposed to be out were actually aimed on Smith, and boy did he respond. 

His response: 299 yards, thee touchdown passes and a rushing touchdown. Smith looked as if he was born for this very situation. He did not throw a pick; Brees did twice. 

Sure Smith fumbled twice, but he only lost one. Ultimately he picked apart a defense that always plays better under the lights, the lights of the dome. 

That New Orleans defense did not have the dome to manufacture energy and confidence. And Saturday night it cost the Saints their season. 

See, everyone made a big deal about the New Orleans offense and the struggles they were likely to have on grass. They struggled at times, but when the lights went out it was the defense who turned them off for these Saints. 

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NFL Playoffs 2012: 10 Questions About San Francisco 49ers vs. New Orleans Saints

The New Orleans Saints will travel to face the San Francisco 49ers in a Divisional Round clash of the 2012 NFL playoffs.

Both have everything to play for, and both have everything to lose.

San Francisco's season was built on its strong defense, and New Orleans' year was dominated by Drew Brees and the offense; all will be wondering as to what style will prevail in the end.

With all the hype, drama and tension that surrounds playoff games, here are 10 burning questions that need answering leading in to the big game—10 questions that will provide us with insight as to who will walk away the winner, and whose season will end.

 

1. Just How Good is This 49er Defense?

Statistically, the answer would be pretty good.

They've allowed 14.3 points per game all season, and just 230.9 passing yards and 77.2 rushing yards. Add to that only 20 passing touchdowns compared with their 23 interceptions, and only three rushing touchdowns for 3.5 yards per carry, the answer reads incredibly good.

But against the most explosive offense in the league, they will be tested; it's only a matter of how much.

Advantage: San Francisco 49ers

 

2. Can the Saints Win Away from New Orleans?

It's been well documented all week that the Saints will struggle outside of the Superdome. Whilst going 4-1 on the road this year, they did so against weaker defenses, and still only managed an average of 13 points per game.

Since all these touchdowns came via Drew Brees, the Saints need their main man to be firing on all cylinders to get a win. And even with Brees, it's no guarantee.

Advantage: San Francisco 49ers

 

3. Is Alex Smith Good Enough to Match It with the Saints?

As the Saints try to turn this one in to a shootout, pressure will fall on Niners quarterback Alex Smith to score points for the offense, and not simply rely on the running game.

San Francisco's passing game ranks in the bottom four in the league, averaging only 183.1 yards per game. Having said that, Smith has been better than this year, and is completing over 60 percent of his passes for the season, for 18 touchdowns and only five interceptions.

Taking all that in to account though, Smith is not good enough to go strike-for-strike with Drew Brees and the New Orleans offense, and I don't think he'll be at all trying to.

They will want to pound out a win, rather than try and win in a shootout.

Advantage: New Orleans Saints

 

4. What Happens if Drew Brees Doesn't Get It Going?

The question that most New Orleans fans won't want to admit they're asking: What will happen should the Niners defense stop Drew Brees. I mean, then what do they do?

Option No. 1 would be to look to the running game.

Despite chalking up 132.9 rushing yards for 18 touchdowns this season, the Saints might have to get the running game going outside of the Superdome and on real grass.

Will they be able to do it then? We'll come back to this one.

Option No. 2 is to rely on the defense.

Sitting in the bottom three for passing yards and in the bottom three for interceptions, the Saints will need some huge plays by their defensive unit to keep them in this one.

If they can't stop Smith picking up first downs, they'll struggle to rein in the 49ers. I don't like the defense to keep the Saints in this one.

Advantage: San Francisco 49ers

 

5. Is New Orleans' Running Game Good Enough?

After losing Mark Ingram earlier in the year, Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas will need to play huge games to keep the Saints in this one.

As mentioned above, the Saints statistically have a solid running game, but away from New Orleans, it's a totally different story. Since Brees took over the reins in 2006, the 16-14 Saints have only scored three rushing touchdowns.

Three rushing touchdowns on grass in five-and-a-bit years?

Advantage: San Francisco 49ers

 

6. Whose Offensive Line Will Have a Greater Impact?

For the Niners to win, they must control the pace of the game and not allow Drew Brees to just throw it around as he pleases.

In order for that to happen, they must convert on short-yard downs and give Smith enough time to make big-time throws. They've given up 44 sacks all year, and must not allow the Saints defense to get the better of Smith.

The Saints offensive line holds the key for me.

If the line gives Brees enough time to throw the ball, they will flourish.

If they can create good holes in the San Fran run defense, they will flourish.

And after only allowing 24 sacks all year, they should stand tall against the Niners offensive line.

Advantage: New Orleans Saints

 

7. Will the Time-of-Possession Battle Win the Game for Either Side?

With a lot of talk about the San Francisco 49ers needing to control the clock and carry out good drives, the real emphasis should be on scoring at the end of their drives, and not allowing the Saints to score.

They can drive all they want, but if they can only manage a field goal, and then allow Drew Brees to march it down field in a couple of minutes and score a touchdown, the "time-of-possession" battle counts for nothing.

The real battle therefore rests with stopping Brees and finishing clinically themselves.

Advantage: New Orleans Saints

 

8. Can the 49ers Corners and Safeties Make Big Plays on the Ball?

The Detroit Lions dropped potential interceptions against Drew Brees. And simply put, you just can't drop them should he give you a chance, because next time, they'll be sailing past your hands in to the end zone.

After allowing only 14 interceptions all year and completing at over 70 percent of his passes, the 49ers know they have their hands full trying to stop Brees. And it'll be up to their secondary, particularly Donte Whitner and Dashon Goldson, to come up with big stops.

Ranking third in pass deflections and interceptions, it does appear the 49ers have a great chance. Still, it is Drew Brees we're talking about.

Advantage: New Orleans Saints

 

9. Who Will Win the Coaching Battle?

Jim Harbaugh will be named coach of the year, but I'm sure he will feel that's all for nothing if the Niners are knocked out before the NFC Championship game.

He has been simply incredible for San Francisco this year, and will his impact and relationship with Alex Smith trump that of Sean Payton and Drew Brees?

One thinks yes to the first, and probably no to the second. Still, Harbaugh's presence definitely will be felt in this one.

Advantage: San Francisco 49ers

 

10. What about the Weather?

I'm not thinking the weather will play as big a part in this one as it is hyped to.

Yes it's outside and the Saints don't like the outside, but it's not that cold and the weather is not that bad in San Francisco.

The Saints have been talked about and talked about, and there has been very little coming out of the San Francisco camp about how the weather will impact the game.

It will be a factor, undoubtedly, but in the end, it won't stop Drew Brees and the Saints marching on.

The Saints will win 32-25. After an early field-goal battle, a touchdown just before halftime and one just after, the Saints will take the game away from the Niners.

Take Devery Henderson to score the first touchdown of the game for a little bit of New Year's cheer.

 

Read more articles by Dan here or follow him on Twitter: @dantalintyre.

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Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, or Tom Brady: Which Player Will Be the 2011 NFL MVP?

The NFL Most Valuable Player award is the most prestigious individual award in the NFL, presented by the Associated Press to the player who not only plays at an excellent level individually, but also makes his teammates better.

Since this is the most highly regarded individual award in the NFL, there is plenty of debate on an annual basis as to who will win NFL MVP.

This article will start by narrowing the MVP race down to only the top candidates, at which point those candidates will be directly compared to each other to see who the MVP should be. 

Players That Can Be Ruled Out Immediately:

1. Any player other than a quarterback: A quick study of the history of the AP NFL MVP award suggests that the only players who have a realistic shot at winning the MVP award are quarterbacks or running backs from playoff teams (the last MVP other than a QB/RB was Lawrence Taylor in 1986). As a result of this history, only quarterbacks or running backs will be considered as possible MVP candidates in this article.  

The top candidates at the running back position for MVP would be LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia Eagles), Maurice Jones-Drew (Jacksonville Jaguars), Fred Jackson (Buffalo Bills), and Matt Forte (Chicago Bears). However, all four candidates were on non-playoff teams, meaning that they will not be considered MVP candidates, even though all four had great years.

2. Quarterbacks from non-playoff teams: As mentioned above, players from non-playoff teams have practically no chance at winning the NFL MVP award, which will rule out every quarterback except the 12 quarterbacks who made it to the playoffs. The most notable quarterbacks that have been ruled out are Tony Romo, Cam Newton, and Philip Rivers.

 

3. Peyton Manning: The possibility of the Indianapolis Colts' quarterback winning the MVP award this year has been brought up by some writers. However, we must remember that the award in question is the most valuable player of the 2011 season, and Peyton Manning has not played a single down of football in the 2011 season. Regardless of how good a player is, that player does not contribute much value to his team by sitting on the bench.

4. The quarterbacks who weren't quite good enough: Out of the twelve playoff quarterbacks in 2011, there are three whose seasons are head and shoulders above the rest: Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees. All three quarterbacks had amazing seasons statistically. In addition, all three quarterbacks carried their teams to 13 wins or better despite a number of issues on each team.

Other quarterbacks like Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford, and Matt Ryan had great years with their respective teams, but were simply a step below the top three quarterbacks.

Comparing the Top Candidates:

Trying to find fair ways to compare quarterbacks is difficult since every quarterback faces a unique set of circumstances. I have decided that the best way to start is to do a comparison of each quarterbacks' drive statistics.

Here is the basic idea: one of the often ignored factors that impact a quarterback's statistics is how many offensive possessions that quarterback plays. The more offensive possessions a quarterback plays, the more opportunities that quarterback has to throw for yards, touchdowns, and interceptions.

A quarterback's raw yardage and touchdowns can be misleading if that quarterback is at a disadvantage in terms of number of drives. Since Aaron Rodgers missed an entire game at the end of the year (to avoid injury in a meaningless game), the difference in total drives is meaningful.

 

To count the number of drives each quarterback played, I started with Football Outsiders' drive stats, which counts the number of drives each team has ("take a knee" drives are disregarded). Then, using the nfl.com play-by-play charts, I excluded every drive in which the quarterback was benched with a big lead or in a meaningless game.

Finally, I computed per-drive statistics (completions per drive, yards per drive, touchdowns per drive, etc) for each quarterback. Using these figures, I estimated how each quarterback would have done if they had played all of the drives for their respective teams:

Drew Brees:

Actual Statistics: 169 drives, 468*/657 comp/att (71.2* completion percentage), 5,476* passing yards, 46 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 110.6 passer rating

Adjusted Statistics: 174 drives, 482/676 comp/att (71.2 completion percentage), 5,638 passing yards, 47 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 110.6 passer rating

Tom Brady:

Actual Statistics: 172 drives, 401/611 comp/att (65.6 completion percentage), 5,235 passing yards, 39 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 105.6 passer rating

Adjusted Statistics: 173 drives, 403/615 comp/att (65.6 completion percentage), 5,265 passing yards, 39 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 105.6 passer rating

Aaron Rodgers:

Actual Statistics: 148 drives, 343/502 comp/att (68.3 completion percentage), 4,643 passing yards, 45 passing touchdowns,  6 interceptions, 122.5* passer rating

 

Adjusted Statistics: 168 drives: 389/570 comp/att (68.3 completion percentage), 5,270 passing yards, 51 passing touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 122.5 passer rating

*NFL record

To compare the three, here is the ranking of each quarterback in each category for the drive-adjusted statistics:

Completion Percentage (not affected by the adjustment):

1. Drew Brees: 71.2

2. Aaron Rodgers: 68.3

3. Tom Brady: 65.6

Passing Yards

1. Drew Brees 5,638

2. Aaron Rodgers 5,270

3. Tom Brady 5,265

Yards Per Pass Attempt (not affected by the adjustment)

1. Aaron Rodgers 9.2

2. Tom Brady 8.6

 

3. Drew Brees 8.3

Passing Touchdowns

1. Aaron Rodgers 51

2. Drew Brees 47

3. Tom Brady 39

Interceptions

1. Aaron Rodgers 7

2. Tom Brady 12

3. Drew Brees 14

Passer Rating (not affected by the adjustment)

1. Aaron Rodgers 122.5

2. Drew Brees 110.6

3. Tom Brady 105.6

With Aaron Rodgers having the advantage in touchdowns, interceptions, yards per pass as well as his NFL record passer rating, the statistical advantage has to go to Rodgers, even though it is very close.

 

Statistics do not tell the whole story though. One must also look at other factors that can affect passing performance. The categories included here are strength of receivers, the running games, the offensive lines, and the defenses supporting each quarterback.

Receivers

Comparing the quarterbacks in this category is tough. All three quarterbacks have some of the best receiving threats in the league.

The Patriots have the best tight end tandem in the NFL with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. They also have Wes Welker who is a Pro Bowl caliber receiver and among the game's best. Deion Branch is a solid fourth option in the passing game.

Beyond these four receivers, the Patriots' receiving corps has very little depth. Chad Ochocinco, the Patriots' big free agent acquisition this past off-season, only has 15 catches in the entire season.

The Saints have plenty of talent and depth in their receiving corps. Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Robert Meacham, and Devery Henderson are all dangerous weapons. Jimmy Graham has had a breakout year and is one of the top tight ends in the league. Out of the backfield, Darren Sproles is a great receiver and rounds out the best receiving corps in the league.

If the Saints are the best receiving corps in the league, the Packers are without a doubt the second best. Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings are both Pro Bowl caliber players. James Jones and Donald Driver are solid at the third and fourth receiver positions and Finley is an athletic tight end who creates mismatches, although his production is nowhere near the level of Gronkowski or Graham.

 

The one drawback to the Packers' receiving corps is that they ranked well ahead of the Saints and Patriots in dropped passes (drops statistics can be found here). However, they are still an extremely talented group and do a great job of supporting Rodgers.

In conclusion, all three teams have extremely talented and productive receiving corps. This category is so close that it is essentially a wash.

Running Game

The running game is an important component of team support. A poor running game leads to a team throwing the ball more, hence there will presumably be more attempts, completions, yards, and touchdowns for a team with a poor running game.

However, the downside is that a poor running game also leads to more turnovers since defenses are more focused on stopping the pass if they don't feel threatened by the run. So, if a quarterback can maintain excellent statistics in spite of a poor running game, that is an important factor in who the best quarterback is.

Here are the statistics for each teams' running game:

Rushing Yards Per Game

1. New Orleans Saints: 132.9

2. New England Patriots: 110.2

3. Green Bay Packers: 97.4

Rushing Yards Per Carry

 

1. New Orleans Saints: 4.9

2. New England Patriots: 4.0

3. Green Bay Packers 3.9

The advantage in this category goes to Rodgers, who has maintained the highest passer rating in NFL history despite a poor showing from his running game.

Offensive Line

Pass protection is of course an essential part of a quarterback's supporting cast. Unfortunately, the only truly effective way to judge a team's pass protection is to watch them play, as it is impossible to judge from stats alone.

With that said, here are the number of times each quarterback was sacked this season:

Aaron Rodgers: 36

Tom Brady: 32

Drew Brees: 24

These number suggest that the Packers have the worst offensive line of the three teams. This isn't too crazy to imagine, since the Saints have had three linemen selected to the Pro Bowl this season, a rarity in today's NFL.

The Patriots and Packers have both had injuries and issues on the offensive line. The Packers have had especially bad luck with their offensive tackles, with injuries to offensive tackles Chad Clifton, Brian Bulaga, and Derek Sherrod. Losing three offensive tackles to injury for parts of the season is brutal, but Rodgers has toughed it out.

 

Even though this is a subjective category, it is fairly safe to say that Rodgers has the worst pass protection of the three quarterbacks given the circumstances.

Defenses

Having defensive support indirectly impacts a quarterbacks' performance. A team with a poor defense puts more pressure on its quarterback to win games, and this pressure can result in additional turnovers. So, if a quarterback is succeeding in spite of a poor defensive performance, it needs to be noted.

In terms of yards allowed per game, all three teams finished in the bottom ten in the league, with the Patriots and Packers being 31st and 32nd, respectively, and the Saints at 24th. However, when you instead consider points allowed, a much more important category, all three teams finish in the middle of the pack, with the Saints, Patriots, and Packers ranked 13th, 15th, and 19th, respectively.

Another important defensive category is turnovers. The Packers and Patriots are actually two of the top three teams in the league at forcing turnovers. The Saints, however, are near the bottom of the league in turnovers.

The turnovers forced give the Patriots and Packers the advantage over the Saints in defensive support.

Conclusion

Ultimately, this is a very close MVP race, and Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers are all worthy candidates for the MVP award regardless of who receives the award.

Aaron Rodgers has posted out-of-this-world efficiency with one of the league's worst running games and a questionable offensive line. Despite a great receiving corps, Rodgers' season is still absolutely remarkable.

Drew Brees and Tom Brady will get a good, long look from the MVP voters, but the choice for the award is clear:

Aaron Rodgers is at the top of the pack.

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Three nuggets of knowledge about Saturday’s Saints-49ers playoff game (ESPN)

Final Word: Saints at 49ers - NFC South Blog - ESPN
Chris IvoryThe great outdoors: There has been a lot of talk about how New Orleans’ offense is built for a dome and doesn’t play as well outdoors. But some numbers dispute that. According to ESPN Stats & Information, New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees completed 61.9 percent of his throws of 21 yards or more down field during the regular season when playing outdoors. In indoor games, Brees completed only 50 percent of his passes of 21 yards or more.

Tipping their hand: The New Orleans offense can do damage with just about any of its skill-position players. But, in one way, the Saints are predictable. Although the Saints use running backs Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory in a rotation, their roles are pretty well defined. When Sproles is on the field, the Saints have passed on 70.3 percent of their offensive plays. When Thomas has been in the game, the Saints have thrown 68.9 percent of the time. When Ivory has been on the field, the Saints have run 73.4 percent of the time.

Easy on the blitz:
New Orleans defensive coordinator Gregg Williams always has been a very aggressive coach. The Saints blitz more often than any team in the NFL. Including the playoff victory against Detroit, the Saints have sent five or more pass-rushers on 51.3 percent of opponent’s dropbacks this season. That’s the highest percentage in the league. Williams’ goal is to force opposing quarterbacks to make mistakes. But Williams may want to re-think his philosophy when facing San Francisco’s Alex Smith, who has excelled when facing the blitz this season. When facing five or more pass-rushers, Smith threw 10 touchdowns and just one interception.





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The Kevin Buckles Report: Saints vs. Niners Playoff Edition

Keys to the Game:

Drew Brees 

ESTABLISH AN EARLY LEAD

As I stated in my Playoff Preview, the San Francisco 49ers may just be the most fundamentally sound team in the league. They are built like an old-school NFL team that is a run-first offense, committing very few turnovers and committed to playing very stout defense on the other end. However, they are NOT built like a team that can play “catch-up” such as Detroit Lions team that kept Saints fans on the edge of their seats on Wild Card weekend. If the Niners were to fall down 10-0, or 14-3, for example, they would almost have to completely abandon their offensive game plan, in an effort to keep pace with the points the Saints’ explosive offense put up. It would immediately take Alex Smith out of his comfort zone and could make him force more passes down the field, which could end up being potential turnovers for the Saints defense. But to accomplish this, it is vital that Drew Brees have the offense in sync early and stress not turning the ball over on promising drives as they did (twice) vs. the Lions in the first half.

 

PRESSURE ALEX SMITH

Saints vs. Niners

Although Alex Smith has had somewhat of a resurging season, it hasn’t all been “peaches and cream.” Smith has been sacked an eye-popping 44 times this season, leading the league. The Niners might try to come out and pass the ball early to get the Saints defense off balance so that should open up an early chance for Smith to get pressured. If New Orleans’ blitz-happy defense can hurry Smith early, he can start becoming jittery in the pocket and start throwing errant passes which will play right into the Saints hands (literally).

 Malcolm Jenkins stopping Vernon Davis

CONTAIN VERNON DAVIS

The Achilles-heel on the Saints defense this year has been Roman Harper covering tight ends over the middle of the field. A tight end has caught a touchdown pass in nine of the Saints seventeen games this season, a pretty staggering stat. Vernon Davis was the 49ers’ second leading receiver in receptions and yards, and led the team in touchdown passes this season. Davis is definitely a security blanket for Alex Smith, and the focus needs to be on him when trying to defend the pass, especially on play-action plays. Helping Harper blanket Davis in coverage could mean that Smith would be forced to move the ball more vertical with Malcolm Jenkins roaming deep ready to make a play on long passes.

 

Key Matchup:

 

JIMMY GRAHAM/DARREN SPROLES VS PATRICK WILLIS & NAVARRO BOWMAN

There is no doubt that the emergence of Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles have propelled the New Orleans Saints offense to another level this season. In only his second season, Graham just finished up having one of the most prolific seasons for a tight end in NFL History while Sproles broke the record for most all-purpose yards in a season that stood for ten years. And although no team has been able to really contain the duo, the 49ers may have the personnel to get it done. Perennial All-Pro middle linebacker Patrick Willis is widely considered the best in the league at his position in all facets of the game. Navarro Bowman is a budding star playing alongside Willis and proved that he is a legit player when he stepped in admirably for Patrick when he was out for about a month with a hamstring injury. They are extremely athletic, agile, strong at the point of attack, and have great closing speed; all ingredients of being able to keep Sproles and Graham under wraps. That could be a huge bonus for the Niners and somewhat of a setback for the Saints offense seeing that those are Brees’ go-to-guys. The side that dominates this matchup for the majority of the day will have an excellent chance on winning the game.

 

Player to Watch For:

 

CHRIS IVORY

Marshawn Lynch, who is the main cog on a one-dimensional running offense in Seattle handled the 49ers run defense in Week 16 with his bruising running style. He became the first guy to rush for over 100 yards as well as being the first guy to rush for a touchdown vs. them. The reason I bring up Lynch is because him and Saints running back Chris Ivory have very similar styles of running. They are rarely, if ever, brought down off of first contact, and they always seem to fall forward after being tackled. By no means am I saying that Ivory is on the same level as Lynch, but if he can bring his normal level of toughness and tenacity to the Saints offense like he’s known for, it can really pay dividends for the team. It would loosen up the Niners defense for sure as well as provide great balance for the Saints offense, preventing them from becoming predictable and one-dimensional. If Ivory can consistently gain tough yardage on the ground during the game to keep the 49ers defense honest, it will be another big game for the Saints, and they’ll be most likely on their way to their third NFC Championship game in six years.

 Saints Win Against Niners

Prediction:

 

Something tells me the Saints wont have as much trouble scoring as people would think early in the ball game, and I think they will take control early. The 49ers simply don’t have enough firepower to keep up with the scoring of New Orleans and will find themselves scrapping near the end of the game for points. Alex Smith has been the mot inefficient quarterback in the league this season in the redzone, leading to kicker David Akers setting the NFL for most field goals made in a season through only 14 games. Field goals just won’t win it vs. the Saints on any football field, indoor or outdoor. With that being said, I predict the Saints will defeat the San Francisco 49ers in Candlestick Park by a score of 34-26.

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Saints vs. 49ers: Drew Brees Will Extend Brilliant Season

The notion of defense winning championships went out the window the minute Drew Brees decided to have a historical season. 

Who would dare stand in the way of the man who shattered Dan Marino's 27-year-old record of 5,084 yards passing by throwing for 5,476? For many, the claim is that the San Francisco 49ers' grass and an open-air stadium in San Francisco will. 

Granted, the Saints will have to face a rowdy crowd and will no doubt be slowed away from a dome. So we can concede that they will not throw up 40 points, but they will certainly put up a good amount of points on the board. 

This is an intriguing game that will serve to answer whether a stout defense is indeed the way to win consistently in the playoffs. The Saints will be strained to hold the 49ers, who will most definitely place a couple touchdown drives together. 

The Saints are a predatory defense and the 49ers just don't cough up the ball. That is why this game will be a higher scoring affair than you would think. 

What it all comes down to is versatility. The Niners can stop the run, but can't stop a team that will do everything in their power to surprise. Brees explains what is at the heart of the Saints offense, via ABC News:

We always go into every game with an aggressive mentality. We're going to be balanced, but within the framework of that we're going to take our shots. We're going to throw the kitchen sink at everybody with our tempo, personnel groups, formations, running the ball, outside, drop-back pass, bootlegs, heavy play-action, everything. But within the framework of that, you understand, especially early on, you check it down, move on.

It's all or nothing for the Saints, and there is no way that we can bet against a team that has been feasting lately. 

While the 49ers will not be beat by the run, the Saints have a rotation that will at least keep  San Francisco on their toes. 

After that, it's all Brees and the Saints bombing the ball all over the field. The 49ers are a ground and pound team, but the Saints pace will make this a shootout, and San Francisco can't keep up with that type of game.

Read more New Orleans Saints news on BleacherReport.com

Click to read the original Saints article by Bleacher Report - New Orleans Saints

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2012 NFL Playoff Predictions: Predicting the Top QB Performances

The 2012 Wild Card round delivered a weekend of sensational highlight-reel play and historical performances on both sides of the ball, most notably by the quarterbacks. Drew Brees in particular comes to mind, with yet another record-setting performance as he threw for over 460 yards. Tim Tebow sits right there with him, delivering a ridiculous 31 yards per completion in a 316 yard passing performance against none other than the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The question this week is, can Brees and Tebow do it again, and can the rested-but-rusty bye-week quarterbacks come in and counter the momentum of the Wild Card winners?

Lets have a look at who will and won't perform under center for the 2012 Divisional round. 

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Click to read the original Saints article by Bleacher Report - New Orleans Saints

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