Drew Brees

When you think of the Saints led by Drew Brees, the monster stats jump out first. 

Deservedly so, as the quarterback has had a record-breaking season:

5,476 yards, 71 percent completion rate, 46 touchdowns and a 110.6 rating. 

But (pause for dramatic effect), lurking behind the impressive numbers are other stats that significantly improve the 49ers chance of upsetting the Saints. 

I'm not usually a stats guy, but these are hard to ignore. 

Superior, Inferior

Brees is having a superior season against mostly inferior opponents. Eleven of the Saints' 16 regular season games were against defenses ranked 21st or worse. 

Remember: The 49ers have arguably the best defense in the entire NFL.

Home Sweet Dome

The Saints are 9-0 at home this season, averaging 41.6 points and 507.4 yards per game, compared to 5-3 on the road with averages of 27.3 points and 441.6 yards. That's a two touchdown difference. 

Also, the Saints defense surrenders 24.5 points per road game. 

Remember: Saturday's NFC Divisional game will be played at Candlestick Park, home of the 49ers. 

The Saints have committed 12 of their 19 turnovers (65%) on the road. 

Remember: The 49ers lead the league with 38 forced turnovers, 23 of those while playing at home. 

Oh, and the New Orleans Saints have never won a single road playoff game in franchise history. Included in that is last year's stunning loss at the hands of a 7-9 Seattle Seahawks squad that had no business being in the postseason. 

The 2011-12 Saints are a great team, but are a different team when playing on the road. 

Have I mentioned the location of Saturday's game between the 49ers and Saints?

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The New Orleans Saints enter Saturday's divisional-round matchup with the San Francisco 49ers riding a nine-game winning streak.

After smoking the Detroit Lions 45-28 in the Wild Card Round, the Saints look primed to make a deep run this year. Unfortunately for the 49ers, they landed in the path of an offensive juggernaut. 

Against the Lions, New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees threw for 466 yards and three touchdowns. That just added to the incredible season he is having. As we all know by now, Brees set the single-season passing yardage record this year, throwing for an insane 5,476 yards. 

Largely thanks to Brees' incredible season, the Saints boasted the NFL's top offense this season, averaging 467.1 total yards per game.

They also had the top passing offense (334.2 yards per game), sixth-ranked rushing offense (132.9 yards per game) and second in scoring with 34.2 points per game. 

While the 49ers had the NFL's top-ranked rushing defense this season (allowing 77.3 yards per game), they ranked 16th against the pass (230.9 yards per game).

Unless head coach Jim Harbaugh comes up with a dynamite game plan, the Saints should be able to spread the field and pass all over San Francisco. 

The problem for the 49ers will then be keeping pace with the high-powered Saints. The only way to do that is to eat up yards through the air, something San Francisco is not adept at doing. The 49ers ranked 29th in the league in passing offense this season, averaging just 183.1 yards per game.

Quarterback Alex Smith has made tremendous strides this season, but he is still just a game manager and not a passer who could keep up with Brees.

While the 49ers surprised everyone and had a fantastic season, their downfall will be an average pass defense and an inability to get big plays in the passing game.

The Saints should run away with this one. Few teams in the NFL can score with them—San Francisco is not one of them.

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For two full seasons now, Drew Brees has been showing up for games with a kid brother in tow.

We’re talking about the New Orleans Saints’ defense. It’s just good enough to go out there and stand on the field while Brees is on the sideline. But it’s not nearly good enough to win games on its own.

Brees and the offense have done the heavy lifting last season and this season, and the Saints have won a lot of games. But, if the Saints are going to get back to being Super Bowl champions like they were in the 2009 season, the little brother is going to have to grow up in a hurry and carry his weight.

Maybe it comes in Saturday’s divisional-round playoff game at San Francisco. Maybe it comes in the NFC Championship Game, or maybe it comes in the Super Bowl.

But, at some point this postseason, the New Orleans defense is going to have to stand on its own two feet if the team is going to win a championship. I’m not saying the Saints need to go out and totally shut down an offense. That’s not the style of defense they used in their championship season, and it’s not what’s in their defensive playbook.

I’m simply saying there will come a point in time when the New Orleans defense has a chance to step up and make a play or two. If it happens, the Saints can win a championship. If it doesn’t, they’ll have another premature exit like last year, when they went to Seattle and couldn’t tackle Marshawn Lynch.

San Francisco’s Frank Gore can run the ball and quarterback Alex Smith has figured out how to be efficient. The 49ers are quickly becoming famous for their defense, a unit that ranked fourth in the NFL this season.

If that San Francisco defense can just slow Brees a little bit, this may be one game where New Orleans’ offense isn’t enough. You can go 13-3 in the regular season with no defense, but you’re bound to need some stops or some turnovers in the postseason.

If the Saints don’t realize that, they’re going to get burned. It seems everybody’s talking about the matchup between Brees and the San Francisco defense. Brees re-wrote the passing record books and the 49ers’ defense gets compared to teams like the 1985 Chicago Bears. Once in a while, there’s even a bit of talk about the San Francisco offense, but there really hasn’t been much said about the New Orleans defense.

That’s something the New Orleans defense has noticed.

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Tags: 49ers, defense, saints

It's not QB Drew Brees, not WR Marques Colston, and not TE Jimmy Graham that will necessarily determine the fate of the New Orleans Saints.

It will inevitably be the play of RB duo Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas that will either ride this team to victory or leave this team short of an NFC championship.

This is not to say that Brees, Colston and Graham won't have a fair amount of impact on this game, but it will be Sproles and Thomas that could and will open up the game for Drew Brees downfield.

Considering the type of numbers Drew Brees has been putting up this season, completely shattering Dan Marino's record for most passing yards in a season, this 49ers defense has inevitably taken the time to dissect him on film and have put together a game plan against his attack.

Yet this is a 49ers defense predicated on stopping the run and forcing teams to throw the ball, as Sproles and Thomas, in turn, will be given more opportunities to run the ball and run the ball well with the focus all going to Brees.

What makes the RB duo such a threat to this offense, is the fact that they are two completely different types of running backs.

Thomas will hit the hole hard, pound the ball down the middle of the line, and is a back that likes to get his fair share of looks at the goal line. Last game against the Detroit Lions in the Wildcard round, Thomas picked up 66 yards and a touchdown on just eight carries. His ability to pressure the Lions defense with long, tough runs was arguably the difference maker in the game.

Meanwhile, Sproles has been having himself some monster outings as well. Against the Lions, Sproles was equally as effective or more effective than Thomas, rushing for 51 yards and 10 carries for two touchdowns.

The ability of these two backs to break loose and put pressure on an opposing defense and its front seven will be huge for this Saints team against the 49ers. They feature the No.1 rushing defense in the NFL, as Sproles and Thomas will have to be on a mission, from the start, to break through this 49ers line.

If Sproles and Thomas are able to do the type of damage they did in the game against the Lions, expect plenty of points to go up for the Saints in this one. A promising Sproles-Thomas attack will mean trouble for the 49ers if they are able to get out to especially positive starts.

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The San Francisco 49ers may not be getting any praise, or any respect in their upcoming NFC Divisional round game against the New Orleans Saints, they are a four point underdog at home. 

However, because of the 49ers rushing attack, and their dominating defense, they will pull off the upset at home and move onto the NFC Title game next week. 

Frank Gore

When Gore has had a week off in between games, he has gone off on the opponent in the following week. Against Cleveland after the bye, he rushed for 137 yards with a touchdown.  

New Orleans, just like Cleveland, gave up an alarmingly high amount of yards per carry to opposing running backs this year. The Saints ranked 29th in the NFL, giving up on average five yards per carry. 

While the average per carry was bad enough, the Saints gave up 11 touchdowns to running backs. That placed them tied for 10th in the NFC, and 16th in the NFL.

With the week off, Gore will be able to rip off some big gains, which will allow the 49ers defense time to rest to keep the high-powered Saints offense off of the board. 

Patrick Willis

Willis is playing in his first ever postseason game, and the defensive All-Pro will shine this weekend. 

On the year, Willis missed three games because of being injured, but still finished second on the 49ers in tackles (97). Despite missing three games, Willis had a career-high in forced fumbles (four), and was picked as a starter for the NFC in the Pro Bowl. 

In Willis' first ever playoff game, he will be a dominant force for the 49ers against the New Orleans Saints. He will finish the game with eight total tackles and a forced fumble, helping this 49ers team advance to the NFC Championship Game. 

Alex Smith

Smith has come under an enormous amount of scrutiny in his first six years in San Francisco. However, he has seen his career rejuvenated this year, as he his having his best stats of his career. 

This year, Smith has seen his best numbers when playing at home. He has an amazing 12 touchdowns to only three interceptions, a 62.7 completion percentage and has thrown for 1,620 yards. 

If Brees and the Saints put pressure on Smith and the 49ers by scoring points thus keeping the game close, Smith has proven this year that he can handle that pressure. In games where the 49ers are winning-or-losing by seven points or less, Smith has seven touchdowns to three interceptions, with 1,605 yards. 

Smith can handle the pressure of the Saints defense, and will guide this 49ers team to another victory, just like he did in the regular season. 

These three players will take the 49ers back to the NFC Championship game, and could very easily lead them back to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1994.  

Follow @tjmcaloon

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The league’s No. 2 scoring offense meets the No. 2 scoring defense at Candlestick on Saturday. Neither side has faced this tall of an order this season. Here’s the breakdown.

1. Niners inside ‘backers on Saints stars NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis are the reason San Francisco had the league’s best all-around defense in 2011. Both are smart, supremely athletic and adept in traffic and space. Thus, both can play run or pass at the highest of levels, which is why neither comes off the field much. All season long, defenses have tried to figure out not just how to stop Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles, but how to simply line up against them. Do you use safeties on Graham and linebackers on Sproles? Vice Versa? Do you go with cornerbacks for both and risk getting run on? The Niners might be the first team that doesn’t have to worry about personnel packages against these two, as they may put one First Team All-Pro linebacker on Graham and the other First Team All-Pro linebacker on Sproles. Whether the Niners can win those matchups is another discussion, but defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is extremely fortunate to be able to even consider it. Instead of having his players focus on new strategies, he can have them focus on execution. 2. Handling the rest of New Orleans’ passing attack The 49ers generally play zone out of their base defense and man when they go nickel or dime. Because Graham is like a third wide receiver, the Saints can stay predominantly in their base personnel if they’re more comfortable facing zone coverage. That should be the case Saturday, as San Fran’s cornerbacking trio of Tarell Brown and Chris Culliver outside and Carlos Rogers inside has been tremendous in man-to-man. Those three are capable of matching up with Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem and Marques Colston – especially if safeties Donte Whitner and Dashon Goldson are providing help as free roamers over the top. Whitner is somewhat limited in coverage (his success tends to come when linebackers are blitzing, which defines the routes quickly and makes them easier to jump). Goldson, on the other hand, is very rangy. Both players must be careful not to overreact to the subtle fakes and body language of Drew Brees. No quarterback manipulates deep safeties better than the new single season passing yards record holder. 3. Pressuring Brees San Francisco is willing to blitz but often doesn’t have to, thanks to the speed of edge-rushers Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks. Smith works extremely well with All-Pro defensive end/tackle Justin Smith on the left side when it comes to twists and stunts. That’s something the Saints left offensive line has struggled with over the years. This season, however, athletic left tackle Jermon Bushrod has finally polished his pass-blocking mechanics and perennial Pro Bowl guard Carl Nicks has ironed out the kinks he had in lateral pass-blocking movement. Nicks is also great at picking up Bushrod’s slack as a help-blocker. The real key will be whether the right side of the Saints’ line can keep Brees clean. This Saints started clicking after their loss to the Rams, when Sean Payton tweaked the protections to give his tackles help with chip blocks from backs and tight ends. That’s the only way the Saints could survive the slow feet of right tackle Zach Strief. If Ahmad Brooks draws even one true solo matchup against Strief on third-and-long, it means something has gone terribly wrong. (Or, it means the Niners will have gambled with an overload pass-rush on that side, which is plausible given that Bowman and Willis are both excellent blitzers.) 4. Niners run game against Saints D The Niners make no bones about it: they’re going to win with Frank Gore, not Alex Smith. They’re a power-run offense – literally. Most of their offense derives from power plays, with left guard Mike Iupati pulling and fullback Bruce Miller or H-back Delanie Walker lead-blocking. The Saints have the personnel to stop this. Former Niners tackle Aubrayo Franklin is a clogger inside and, when he shows up, veteran Shaun Rogers is a destroyer off the bench behind the generally incognito Sedrick Ellis. Also, defensive ends Will Smith and Cameron Jordan might not have dazzling sack numbers (Jordan, this year’s first round pick, recorded all of one), but both are superb at crashing inside or sliding down the line of scrimmage. At the second level, Jonathan Vilma is regarded as the star (and rightfully so – he calls the signals and patrols sideline-to-sideline), but strong safety Roman Harper might be the deciding character on Saturday. Harper’s presence is what makes the Saints’ front seven so fast. That will be especially important when backup running back Patrick Hunter, an underrated tempo-changer with better quickness and burst than Frank Gore, is in the game. 5. Niners big pass plays vs. Saints secondary Jim Harbaugh is masterful at installing simple wrinkles in his offense each week that take advantage of the opponent’s greatest weakness. This week that means building a few downfield shot-plays into the passing game. The Saints led the league in 40-plus-yard pass plays allowed during the regular season. The Niners know that if they keep extra blockers in for pass protection help (which their O-line needs, especially at tackle, where Joe Staley is very average on the left side and Anthony Davis, despite getting an embarrassingly nonsensical All-Pro vote, is very inconsistent on the right side), the Saints, with their green-dog heavy blitz packages, will bring the house:

Thus, there are one-on-one matchups to be had downfield. Though San Francisco’s offense has been Gingrich-level conservative this season, downfield shots off play-action, particularly when the ball’s just inside midfield, have actually been a consistent element in their gameplans. The Niners have to intentionally design their big plays because, other than maybe tight end Vernon Davis, they don’t have anyone who can conjure them naturally. Michael Crabtree has great body control but “inexplosive” speed. Kyle Williams is quick out of the slot but not over the top. Ted Ginn has playmaking POTENTIAL but isn’t consistent enough to be considered an actual PLAYMAKER. So who will win? Check our NFL expert picks for all Week 8 games.  Follow @Andy_Benoit on Twitter or contact him at Andy.Benoit-at-NFLTouchdown.com.

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Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints are coming off of a 45-28 point blowout win against the Detroit Lions. Now they will travel to Candlestick Park to face the San Fransisco 49ers, who are one of the most improved teams from 2010.

On Saturday, San Fransisco's luck will run out. The Saints bring much, much more to the table than the 49ers, and there are several key reasons why a Saints win is imminent this week:

 The 49ers D can't stop the Saints O

The 49ers may boast the best run defense in the NFL, but I can guarantee that Drew Brees and the Saints aren't losing sleep over it. The Saints obviously don't rely on their ground game with Brees breaking Dan Marino's record for passing yards in a season in week 16.

San Fransisco's passing defense was on average with only 23 picks while allowing 20 touchdowns and 230 yards per game average despite playing quarterbacks such as Tarvaris Jackson, Sam Bradford, and Kevin Kolb twice a year.

One can only imagine what Brees and crew will be able to do to this amateur passing defense.

Alex Smith is no Drew Brees

Obviously, when you try to compare Alex Smith and Drew Brees, there is simply no way to make it seem like they are even close to being on the same level. Unfortunately for San Fransisco, they will be going toe-to-toe on Saturday as the passing game is sure to take over each side's offensive game plan.

The 49ers can try to manage the clock with their strong running game, but the Saints have one of the league's stronger run defenses. And, when Drew Brees starts running away with the score and the 49ers find themselves down late in the game, they will look to Smith to save them, and he won't be able to do it.

Frank Gore and David Akers will not be as important as people expect

Frank Gore and David Akers have been the cornerstones of San Fransisco's offense all season, but they will not be as big in this game as they normally are. This game will not be won by having a solid ground game that controls the clock and kicking field goals. Unfortunately, that is how the 49ers win.

Drew Brees was so good last week the Saints didn't punt AT ALL. Not once. They put up 7 points on almost every drive and will almost surely shred San Fransisco's passing defense on Saturday.

If the 49ers want to win they will have to keep the ball in Alex Smith's hands and not run down the clock with Gore. It only takes one or two three-and-outs for the Saints to build a huge lead on the 49ers, and if they expect to keep up with New Orleans Frank Gore and David Akers won't be scoring as much as usual.

Conclusion

The 49ers had an incredible turn around this season under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, but unfortunately their luck has run out. The Saints match up exceptionally well against some of the 49ers big weaknesses and those will be exploited mercilessly on Saturday. Expect the Saints to win by at least 10 points.

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Looks are all the more deceiving when it comes playoff time in the NFL.

In what seems to be a Divisional round contest featuring arguably the best offense and best defense in the NFL squaring off, it is clearly the New Orleans Saints and the passing attack of Drew Brees that have the edge over the San Francisco 49ers' solid defense.

As these teams meet in an NFC Divisional round showdown of epic proportions, the Saints will have the evident edge heading into the contest. The team's dynamic, high-octane offense will easily take down the 49ers defense in this one, despite the hype surrounding the 49ers unit.

There are several different areas which break down exactly why this 49ers team will find its fair share of struggles stopping Brees and this offense.

Opposing QBs Stats This Season vs. 49ers

Week 2: Tony Romo: 347 yards, 20/33, 2 TDs, 0 INTs

Week 6: Matthew Stafford: 293 yards, 28/50, 2TDs, 0 INTs

Week 10: Eli Manning: 311 yards, 26/40, 2 TDs, 2 INTs

Week 12: Joe Flacco: 161 yards, 15/23, 1 TD, 0 INTs

Week 15: Ben Roethlisberger: 330 yards, 25/44, 0 TDs, 3 INTs

With the exception of what was a fantastic defensive effort against a banged-up, limping Ben Roethlisberger, the 49ers have had little to no success slowing down some of the top QBs in the league.

Romo, Stafford and Flacco were able to throw no interceptions and manged to put forth solid completion percentages. What makes this all the more significant is that the Cowboys, Lions and Ravens have sound offensive lines, and the Saints do as well.

Too Talented an Offense Streaking Late

The Saints are not only the No. 1 offense in the NFL, but are also winners of its last eight games to finish the regular season.

In this nine-game win streak, scoring has been the fuel to success. The Saints have scored at least 22 points in each of those wins and at least 42 points in five of the nine games.

Talk about impressive.

With QB Drew Brees coming off a record-setting performance in 2011 with 5,476 passing yards, the most in a single season in NFL history, expect Brees to pick apart an overrated 49ers defense.

The Saints Put Up Points Against Top Defenses

Week 2 vs. Chicago: 30 points (No. 17 defense)

Week 3 vs. Houston: 40 points (No. 2 defense) 

Week 4 vs. Jacksonville: 23 points (No. 6 defense)

Weeks 10, 16 vs. Atlanta: 26 and 45 points (No. 12 defense)

The numbers are difficult to argue with here, as the Saints have undoubtedly taken care of business offensively against some of the top defenses in the NFL.

For some perspective on the numbers, the 40 points scored against the Texans were 11 points more than any team was able to score on them all season. 

When it's all said and done, there is no question these Saints are ready to put on a show offensively in the pass game against the 49ers.

Drew Brees and company are experienced, motivated and have the firepower on offense to make any team in football play catch-up for four quarters of football.

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