Keys to the Game:

ESTABLISH AN EARLY LEAD

As I stated in my Playoff Preview, the San Francisco 49ers may just be the most fundamentally sound team in the league. They are built like an old-school NFL team that is a run-first offense, committing very few turnovers and committed to playing very stout defense on the other end. However, they are NOT built like a team that can play “catch-up” such as Detroit Lions team that kept Saints fans on the edge of their seats on Wild Card weekend. If the Niners were to fall down 10-0, or 14-3, for example, they would almost have to completely abandon their offensive game plan, in an effort to keep pace with the points the Saints’ explosive offense put up. It would immediately take Alex Smith out of his comfort zone and could make him force more passes down the field, which could end up being potential turnovers for the Saints defense. But to accomplish this, it is vital that Drew Brees have the offense in sync early and stress not turning the ball over on promising drives as they did (twice) vs. the Lions in the first half.

PRESSURE ALEX SMITH

Although Alex Smith has had somewhat of a resurging season, it hasn’t all been “peaches and cream.” Smith has been sacked an eye-popping 44 times this season, leading the league. The Niners might try to come out and pass the ball early to get the Saints defense off balance so that should open up an early chance for Smith to get pressured. If New Orleans’ blitz-happy defense can hurry Smith early, he can start becoming jittery in the pocket and start throwing errant passes which will play right into the Saints hands (literally).

CONTAIN VERNON DAVIS

The Achilles-heel on the Saints defense this year has been Roman Harper covering tight ends over the middle of the field. A tight end has caught a touchdown pass in nine of the Saints seventeen games this season, a pretty staggering stat. Vernon Davis was the 49ers’ second leading receiver in receptions and yards, and led the team in touchdown passes this season. Davis is definitely a security blanket for Alex Smith, and the focus needs to be on him when trying to defend the pass, especially on play-action plays. Helping Harper blanket Davis in coverage could mean that Smith would be forced to move the ball more vertical with Malcolm Jenkins roaming deep ready to make a play on long passes.

Key Matchup:

JIMMY GRAHAM/DARREN SPROLES VS PATRICK WILLIS & NAVARRO BOWMAN

There is no doubt that the emergence of Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles have propelled the New Orleans Saints offense to another level this season. In only his second season, Graham just finished up having one of the most prolific seasons for a tight end in NFL History while Sproles broke the record for most all-purpose yards in a season that stood for ten years. And although no team has been able to really contain the duo, the 49ers may have the personnel to get it done. Perennial All-Pro middle linebacker Patrick Willis is widely considered the best in the league at his position in all facets of the game. Navarro Bowman is a budding star playing alongside Willis and proved that he is a legit player when he stepped in admirably for Patrick when he was out for about a month with a hamstring injury. They are extremely athletic, agile, strong at the point of attack, and have great closing speed; all ingredients of being able to keep Sproles and Graham under wraps. That could be a huge bonus for the Niners and somewhat of a setback for the Saints offense seeing that those are Brees’ go-to-guys. The side that dominates this matchup for the majority of the day will have an excellent chance on winning the game.

Player to Watch For:

CHRIS IVORY

Marshawn Lynch, who is the main cog on a one-dimensional running offense in Seattle handled the 49ers run defense in Week 16 with his bruising running style. He became the first guy to rush for over 100 yards as well as being the first guy to rush for a touchdown vs. them. The reason I bring up Lynch is because him and Saints running back Chris Ivory have very similar styles of running. They are rarely, if ever, brought down off of first contact, and they always seem to fall forward after being tackled. By no means am I saying that Ivory is on the same level as Lynch, but if he can bring his normal level of toughness and tenacity to the Saints offense like he’s known for, it can really pay dividends for the team. It would loosen up the Niners defense for sure as well as provide great balance for the Saints offense, preventing them from becoming predictable and one-dimensional. If Ivory can consistently gain tough yardage on the ground during the game to keep the 49ers defense honest, it will be another big game for the Saints, and they’ll be most likely on their way to their third NFC Championship game in six years.

Prediction:

Something tells me the Saints wont have as much trouble scoring as people would think early in the ball game, and I think they will take control early. The 49ers simply don’t have enough firepower to keep up with the scoring of New Orleans and will find themselves scrapping near the end of the game for points. Alex Smith has been the mot inefficient quarterback in the league this season in the redzone, leading to kicker David Akers setting the NFL for most field goals made in a season through only 14 games. Field goals just won’t win it vs. the Saints on any football field, indoor or outdoor. With that being said, I predict the Saints will defeat the San Francisco 49ers in Candlestick Park by a score of 34-26.

For two full seasons now, Drew Brees has been showing up for games with a kid brother in tow.

We’re talking about the New Orleans Saints’ defense. It’s just good enough to go out there and stand on the field while Brees is on the sideline. But it’s not nearly good enough to win games on its own.

Brees and the offense have done the heavy lifting last season and this season, and the Saints have won a lot of games. But, if the Saints are going to get back to being Super Bowl champions like they were in the 2009 season, the little brother is going to have to grow up in a hurry and carry his weight.

Maybe it comes in Saturday’s divisional-round playoff game at San Francisco. Maybe it comes in the NFC Championship Game, or maybe it comes in the Super Bowl.

But, at some point this postseason, the New Orleans defense is going to have to stand on its own two feet if the team is going to win a championship. I’m not saying the Saints need to go out and totally shut down an offense. That’s not the style of defense they used in their championship season, and it’s not what’s in their defensive playbook.

I’m simply saying there will come a point in time when the New Orleans defense has a chance to step up and make a play or two. If it happens, the Saints can win a championship. If it doesn’t, they’ll have another premature exit like last year, when they went to Seattle and couldn’t tackle Marshawn Lynch.

San Francisco’s Frank Gore can run the ball and quarterback Alex Smith has figured out how to be efficient. The 49ers are quickly becoming famous for their defense, a unit that ranked fourth in the NFL this season.

If that San Francisco defense can just slow Brees a little bit, this may be one game where New Orleans’ offense isn’t enough. You can go 13-3 in the regular season with no defense, but you’re bound to need some stops or some turnovers in the postseason.

If the Saints don’t realize that, they’re going to get burned. It seems everybody’s talking about the matchup between Brees and the San Francisco defense. Brees re-wrote the passing record books and the 49ers’ defense gets compared to teams like the 1985 Chicago Bears. Once in a while, there’s even a bit of talk about the San Francisco offense, but there really hasn’t been much said about the New Orleans defense.

That’s something the New Orleans defense has noticed.

Does San Francisco have a chance of stopping this juggernaut? We may be able to find an answer in New Orleans' passing tendencies. At Football Outsiders, we sort passes by distance into four categories: short (within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage), mid (6 to 15 yards downfield), deep (16 to 25 yards), and bomb (26 or more yards). Despite the highlights you've seen showing Saints marching into the end zone with long touchdown passes (and there have been many), New Orleans actually fields one of the shortest-passing attacks in the league. The Saints are third in percentage of short passes, but 21st in rates of mid and deep passes, and dead last percentage of bomb passes. That tells us what kind of passes Brees likes to throw, but it doesn't tell us which ones he threw well. We can accurately measure Brees' accuracy using success rate. Unlike standard completion percentage, success rate only rewards teams for plays that gain meaningful yardage towards a new set of downs, and also accounts for pass interference penalties. So at which distance does Brees excel? All of the above - the Saints are first or second in success rate in all four distance categories. San Francisco's defense, meanwhile, is softest against those short passes on which New Orleans relies. The 49ers rank ninth in success rate against bombs; sixth against deep balls; ninth against mid-length passes; and 12th against those critical short routes. Looks like the 49ers will struggle with covering the Saints' receivers. Can they make up for it by putting Brees on the ground? Not likely. The New Orleans offense ranked third in adjusted sack rate (sacks per pass play, adjusted for down, distance, score, and opponent) this year. San Francisco's defense ranked 22nd in the same category. Big edge for New Orleans here.

Examine how the New Orleans Saints defense has limited running backs in the 2nd half of the season.  LeGarrette Blount (72 yards), Michael Turner (96 yards), Brandon Jacobs (46 yards), Kevin Smith (34 yards), Chris Johnson (23 yards), Adrian Peterson (60 yards), Michael Turner (39 yards) and Jonathan Stewart (79 yards).  Only Atlanta's Turner came close to breaking the century mark. My point is this.  San Francisco has a good offensive line.  Gore and Turner are a good duo.  I still question there ability to totally control the clock and keep Drew Brees and the Saints off of the field.  People must understand this as well, Drew & his Crew does not need much time to score.    

Saints Playoff Preview

WILD CARD MATCHUP

The high octane New Orleans Saints are going into the playoffs as the hottest team in the league, on an 8-game winning streak, outscoring opponents by an average of 17 points during that span. They will host the young and explosive Detroit Lions on Saturday in the Mercendez-Benz Superdome, in what looks to be a shootout game. The Saints previously beat the Lions just a month ago 31-17, but the Lions were without their biggest defensive presence Ndamokung Suh. Matt Stafford is coming off a spectacular season as well, throwing for over 5,000 yards in just his third season as a pro, and coming off a game vs. the Packers where he threw for 520 yards and five touchdown passes. His top receiving threat, and arguably the best wide receiver in football, Calvin Johnson, will also be licking his chops at having a bigger game vs. the Saints after being a non-factor the first time around during the regular season. This will be no cakewalk for New Orleans, so they need to prepare accordingly to avoid a consecutive Wild Card playoff game loss.

DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF MATCHUP

If the Saints are victorious against the Lions they will travel to San Francisco to face the 13-3 49ers and their top tier defense. The Niners have been arguably the most fundamentally-sound team in the NFL. Defensively, they rank fourth in total defense and first in rushing defense, allowing only 77 yards per game. They’ve also only allowed two rushing touchdowns the entire season, including an astounding 14 straight games without allowing one at all. Offensively, they’ve committed a league-low 10 turnovers, contributing to the 49ers’ exceptional turnover ratio, +28. Drew Brees and the offense are on an unbelievable tear this season, and they’ll produce points enough points to win the game, so it’ll be the Saints’ defensive execution that’ll be a key to victory for them. If they are able to continue to take away the running-game like they’ve been doing, forcing the Niners offensive to become pass-happy, it’ll be a much easier battle for the Who-Dats.

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP MATCHUP

The matchup that the majority of America would love to see resurface in the playoffs, is the Packers vs. Saints. Two high-powered offenses, with two future hall of fame quarterbacks, fighting for the right to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, would be a game for the ages. And quite frankly, New Orleans has wanted another shot at the cheeseheads since Week 1’s loss in Green Bay. This game would most definitely be an offensive shootout, possibly even it coming down to which offense has the ball last. Special teams (as ironic as it sounds) will probably be the biggest key in the game however, as it was in Week 1 with there being two special team touchdowns. The cold Green Bay weather will also play a part, seeing that New Orleans is a “dome team”, but it has consistently been failed to mention that the Saints have ran the exceptional all year long finishing six in the league with over 130 yards gained per game, and are believe it or not, better built for winter football. The Saints being able to run the ball effectively means that they will be able to dictate time of possession, as well as keeping Aaron Rodgers and company off of the field which is the best defense against any high-powered offense.

There’s also a slim chance that the Packers slip up in the divisional rounds leaving the Saints to be hosting either the Giants or Falcons in the NFC Championship. With that game being in the Superdome, I’d fully expect the Saints to dominate as they’ve done year-long, (including beating the Giants AND Falcons by a combined score of 90-42 in the dome) and advancing to the Super Bowl.

SUPERBOWL

Heading into the Superbowl, the Saints would undoubtedly be the hottest, most confident team in the game despite whoever they are facing. They’re opponent would most likely be between the Patriots, Ravens, or Steelers. Out of the three teams, the Saints would definitely want to face the Patriots. Despite finishing the regular season 13-3 as the AFC’s number-one seed, their defense was atrocious to say the least, and they did not beat a team with a winning record all season long. Quarterbacks such as, Dan Orlovsky, Rex Grossman, Matt Moore, and Ryan Fitzpatrick all put up All-Pro-like numbers against the Pats defense this season. This team still does have Tom Brady at the helm, who has the ability to single-handedly keep his team in the game despite their shortcomings. But he can’t play defense which would ultimately be the Pats’ downfall, especially going up against, statistically, the best offense in NFL History in the Saints.

If the Steelers were able to make the Superbowl, they’d come into it limping. Ben Roethlisberger has been dealing with a severe high ankle sprain for the last month or so, hindering his play, Rashard Mendenhall has been lost for the postseason with a torn knee ligament, and a large amount of key defensive players have been dealing with “nick-nack” injuries as well. Nevertheless, this team has been-there-done-that and has the kind of grit, passion, and perseverance that all champions possess. The Saints would have a slight advantage as far as their talent and ability to execute, however, this prideful Pittsburgh team would certainly not go down without a fight, especially coming off of a Superbowl loss just last year.

The Ravens would probably be the Saints worst nightmare in the Super Bowl. On defense, they have All-Pro leaders at every level who can dominate a game their lonesome; Haloti Ngata, Terrell Suggs, Ray Lewis, and Ed Reed. Those guys will give Brees all they have as they did in the 2010 season in Baltimore when they got the win. As far as their offense, it all starts and finishes with Ray Rice. He is a threat in the running game and the passing, and if the Saints weren’t able to at least contain him, it would be a long night. The Saints defense’ best bet would be to force Joe Flacco to beat them. He has had a solid year and has really got acclimated with his tight ends and newly-acquired rookie deep threat, Torrey Smith, which makes their offense that much more dangerous. Flacco has been criticized a good amount in his four-year tenure in the NFL, and would definitely have to rise to the occasion in the big dance. New Orleans’ biggest advantage however, would be the fact that the Superbowl would be played in a dome, where they are most comfortable and where they execute best in. The fact that Drew Brees does have Superbowl experience has a significant advantage too, as he knows what it takes to lead his team to victory.

If you're in Mobile at that time, you're at the Senior Bowl. You're not preparing for the Super Bowl.

"I'm really pissed that I'm sitting here at the Senior Bowl," Williams said during our chat. "Because you know that we had an off day. Had we not had that day ..."

That day was when Marshawn Lynch left Saints defenders scattered all over Qwest Field like a busted bag of Skittles in what has become the lasting moment of New Orleans' 2010 season. It's the day the Saints endured one of the biggest upsets in NFL playoff history when the 7-9 Seattle Seahawks stunned the defending Super Bowl-champion Saints in the NFC wild-card round.

"I've watched [the Lynch run] once when I was grading, and every time it comes on TV I turn the channel. ... I don't shut it off [the memory] very well. I never have shut it off very well," Williams said.

Williams later added: "If it doesn't hurt as a coach and it doesn't hurt as a player, then we've got the wrong player."

The Saints enter this year's postseason in a very similar setting. They're double-digit favorites going into Saturday night's wild-card game against the Lions in the Superdome. The Saints knocked off the Lions a month ago just as the Saints had eased past the Seahawks earlier in the 2010 season.

There's a difference this season.

This year's Saints team is the hottest in the NFL, having won eight straight games, wrapping up the season 13-3 and setting at least a dozen single-season offensive records in the Week 17 win over the Panthers.

And yet that Seahawks game still hurts the Saints players. It hurts bad. It's branded into the Saints' memory banks. It has been an unsolicited topic for numerous players when fielding questions from the media all season. They bring it up, despite what safety Roman Harper said Monday when asked about the Seattle loss.

"You guys will talk about it, but other than that, it's a different team, a different year," said Harper, who was deemed the goat of the Seattle loss after undoubtedly his worst game of the season. "We'll have a home game this year instead of on the road in a tough place like Seattle.

"We're focused and we're determined. We're healthier this year. Last year we went into Seattle kind of banged up, and this year we're not. We're going in a totally different team right now. We're just trying to keep things rolling and keep staying focused and continue preparing for Detroit."

Harper is right. This team is in much better shape physically than last year's squad, and they're simply a much better team with the emergence of pieces like tight end Jimmy Graham and running back Darren Sproles.

Panthers coach Ron Rivera sent out a warning shot following his team's blowout loss to the Saints in Week 17 for the rest of the playoff teams about what type of challenge the Saints present: "When you put the tape on and watch how they played against Atlanta and watch how they played against us, the first thing that you say to yourself is, 'I hope we don't have to play them.' That's what's going to happen."

Drew Brees and the Saints have done a tremendous job of making history in 2011. Now they hope they don't repeat history Saturday night. So does Sean Payton show his team a montage of the carnage from last year's playoff disaster, just once, for emphasis or as a warning this week?

Read the entire Larry Holder Article:  http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/story/16697613/year-later-saints-swear-theyve-learned-lesson-from-seattle-debacle